While it was reported by Japanese tech website Impress Watch that Sony has begun to seriously consider a multi-core CPU alternative to the CELL architecture, there have been no firm reports that Sony has made a final decision. Sony might, for example, choose a modified version of the CELL architecture and it’s possible that Intel’s Larrabee chipset may be found in the final PS4 core.

The article goes on to say that the development of any new console is expected to take a minimum of 24 months, even 36 months. In the end, I think there’s a good chance that Sony will go with a more traditional multi-core processor since this would be most conducive to the game development community. Whatever the case may be, don’t expect Sony to release the PlayStation 4 for at least another 2 years.

The PlayStation 3 platform still has a good deal of life left. And I seriously doubt that Sony would make the mistake of alienating the thousands of PS3 owners who have invested hundreds, even thousands, of dollars in a PS3 gaming system that was supposed to have a longevity of at least 8 years from its inception.

So so you think Sony feels any pressure to turn things around in a hurry? But when Sony released the PlayStation 3 it was with the understanding that it would be around for 8 to 10 years. And game developers who’ve become accustomed to writing for the PS3 are in no hurry to move outside their comfort zones. Certainly, not many PS3 owners who dropped 500 or 600 bucks on a new console are ready to see their investments become yesterday’s news anytime soon. So what to do?

The answer is that Sony may not have much of a choice. This is about business, and sometimes tough choices must be made in the name of survival. Under better economic circumstances, things might have panned out a little better. Maybe fewer consumers would have been drawn to cheaper products like Nintendo’s Wii. Maybe the PlayStation 3 could have at least turned a profit for Sony. Four years ago, the thought of releasing a PlayStation 4 (PS4) before the year 2013 would have seemed crazy. But the way things are shaping up — and shaking down — I’d be surprised if a PlayStation 4 weren’t on the shelves by Christmas of 2012.

Canesta has finally come up with an image sensor that is built upon a single, standard CMOS chip. Unlike the image sensors used in most digital cameras, which see in only two dimensions, Canesta’s sensors see in three dimensions. The capability to process 3-D information in real time opens up a new range of possible applications, including no-touch interfaces that would allow a user to use body movements to control a gaming system such as a PlayStation 4.

This very technology was demonstrated by Microsoft in June of 2009 at the E3 Expo in Los Angeles, California. “Project Natal” technology uses a 3-D sensor to translate a user’s real-life movements into virtual game movements. Extend your fist in a punching motion and your character punches his opponent. Extend your foot in a kicking motion and your character kicks his opponent.

Of Course, any PlayStation 4 equipped with this type of real-time tracking would require more computing power to achieve a level of performance comparable to a more conventional hand-held controller. My guess is that Sony would use 3-D sensors to enhance, rather than replace, the upcoming PS4 game controller. Maybe users could choose to toggle between different modes.

However no-touch technology is used in the PlayStation 4 (PS4), or whether it is used at all, 3-D motion sensing technology will allow people to interact with and control technology in ways previously thought possible only in science fiction.

When thinking about the PlayStation 4 it helps to think about the PlayStation 3 and the $3 Billion (USD) Sony spent developing a gaming console that was nearly as unrivaled as it was unprecedented at the time.  Sony has no plans to cut tether with that investment and start from ground zero all over again.

The PS4 will continue with an improved CELL processor. Sometime around late 2008, information obtained from the ISSCC 2008 and Kaz Hirai, CEO of Sony’s PlayStation division, confirmed that Sony will migrate from the current 65 nm to a 45 nm version of its Cell BE. The 45 nm process will reportedly reduce power consumption by as much as 40% and achieve savings in the cost of production of the PS4.

Expect the PS4 to operate on a GPU designed by Intel.  According to a report by Charlie Demerjian of The Inquirer, a Sony representative at the 2009 Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas confirmed that Intel will design PlayStation 4 GPU.  Intel should provide a sense of reassurance to Sony in that it is a stable company with the resources to weather these troubled economic times.

There’s a good chance the PlayStation 4 will abandon the optical disk format for games in lieu of a digitally distributed (i.e., downloadable) format.  Consider the Cell Broadband Engine, the processing unit for the PS3, was designed to be a core component of digital distribution systems.  Obviously, it wouldn’t have made sense for the PS3 to be an internet-only gaming system, especially considering all the PS2 games that were still in circulation.  Buy no doubt Sony had an eye on the future and so the plan to transition from optical to digitally distributed content necessitated the $3 billion dollar investment in the CELL architecture of the PS3. It was reported by Impress Watch that Sony’s plan all along was to amortize this investment over future generations of PlayStations.

No doubt the PS4 will have significantly increased processing speed; but keeping costs reasonable will preclude anything more than 2 or 3 times twice the speed of the PS3. Achieving a certain level of performance increase at a reasonable cost rather than the maximum possible increase at a significantly higher production cost fits better with Sony’s overall restricting strategy.

As with most consumer electronics, successive generations of a particular product line grow smaller and more efficient even as they continue to increase in performance. So expect the PS4 to be smaller and leaner than the PS3. As flat-panel televisions grow in popularity so does the way that space is allocated for the appliances that connect to them.  A game console with a smaller space requirement would be a welcomed change versus the PS3. In fact, it would make sense for the PS4 to be marketed as a replacement for your DVR. Let’s face it, who needs more clutter around the TV? By replacing the DVR the PlayStation 4 could serve not only as a gaming center but a more all-purpose entertainment center serving up high-definition movies and tv shows.

In conclusion, the PS4 will no doubt change the way many people think about gaming consoles.  It will offer a broadened set of capabilities that extend its use beyond mere gaming.  It will achieve a new level of performance while at the same time remaining affordable to the average consumer.  This latter point is especially important considering the next generation Xbox will be competing for market share along with Nintendo.  Sony has learned quite a few lessons from the PS3.  Expect to see the wisdom gleaned from these lessons reflected in the next generation PlayStation, the PS4.

Consider the fact that Atlantic Records, a division of Warner Music Group, reported in November 2008 that a majority of its music sales are now from digital downloads.  Consider a recent report by Forrester Research which projects that digitally downloaded music will surpass physical CD sales in 2012. People are just plain tired of having to leave their homes to purchase or rent clunky physical storage containers like CD’s and DVD’s just to access digital content that could be downloaded from the convenience of their own homes via a broadband connection.  So what parallels to this can be found in the video gaming industry? And what effect, if any, will this transformation have on the next generation of video gaming systems?

Quite simply, future gaming systems will likely be browser-based; maybe not the PlayStation 4 (PS4), but almost certainly the PS5.  David Lau-Kee, co-founder of Renderware developer Criterion, ex-Electronic Arts VP and the current executive for Kerb Games and Unity has recently went so far as to predict that the “PlayStation 4 and Xbox 720 are going to be browsers.”  This is a pretty bold prediction from someone who is understandably biased toward web-based gaming.

Whether or not this turns out to be true for the PS4, the PS5 will almost certainly be a browser-based, all-purpose entertainment system with specialized video gaming capabilities. The demand is there. But will the bandwidth be there soon enough? We’ll have to wait and see.

Was this Sony’s plan since the inception of the PS3? This makes sense when viewed in the larger context of Sony’s efforts to revamp itself into a leaner, more competitive player in the consumer electronics market. By continuing on the road that was paved by the PS3 Sony could be all but assured of a smooth transition to the next generation platform. This becomes particularly important for timing the release to coincide with that of Microsoft’s Xbox 720 (or whatever it will be called) and Nintendo’s Wii. This approach would also eliminate a big question mark for game developers who need to know the hardware configuration before than can commence writing games for the PS4.

While Sony has repeatedly insisted that the PlayStation 3 will have a lifespan of (roughly) 10 years, recent reports that Crytek has admitted to having begun developing games for the PS4 lead one to question how set-in-stone this 10-year mark really is. This view is consistent with comments made Crytek president and CEO, Cevat Yerli, at the Games Developers Conference in Leipzig concerning a possible release around 2011 – 2012. Stated Yerli, “The PlayStation 4 and Xbox ‘720′ will arrive in 2011 or 2012, we think.” He later added that the NDA (Non-Disclosure Agreement) under which Crytek is bound precludes making public any information about an exact release date, even it were known for sure.

One thing we can say for sure is that Sony will be hard pressed to not keep a close eye on Microsoft. Losing even more market share to the Xbox is not something that would sit well with shareholders who have seen Sony suffer unprecedented loses in recent years. This is not to mention the growing popularity of Nintendo’s Wii.

In the end, we’ll just have to wait and see.

While gamers, for the moment, are content with their PS3’s it’s hard to resist the temptation to speculate as to the next iteration of the Sony PlayStation, the PS4. The concept shown in this image recently surfaced amid rumors that Crytek has already begun developing games for the next generation PlayStation.